Thu, Oct 18, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 116 | 06 | 130 |
| TBL | 113 | 16 | 112 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:20DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Trevor Daley, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 15:19TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:53TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:19DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 9:36DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:50TBLJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:56TBLJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:08DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:08TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:08TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:33TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P3 4:13DETChristoffer Ehn: Holding2 min
- P3 7:40DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P3 19:21TBLBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi7:23
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Nyquist – Larkin9:41
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Mantha – Ehn3:19
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Rasmussen2:54
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen11:19
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Witkowski – Hicketts8:44
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Cholowski12:38
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 7–22goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Gourde – Point10:37
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli5:54
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette7:53
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:36
xG 0.13–0.77 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Sergachev11:20
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh14:28
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman12:52
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).