Thu, Oct 18, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 29 | 431 |
| CHI | 013 | 19 | 012 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43ARILawson CrouseAssists: Clayton Keller, Jordan Oesterle · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 6:34CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Jonathan Toews, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 8:37ARIVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 14:22ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 17:40ARIVinnie HinostrozaENAssists: Nick Cousins, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:50ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:53ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:53CHIJohn Hayden: Holding2 min
- P3 10:23ARIKevin Connauton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Hinostroza9:50
xG 1.06–0.06 (95%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Perlini – Fischer – Strome8:35
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Panik – Archibald – Cousins6:36
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Stepan – Crouse – Keller12:21
xG 0.83–1.04 (44%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson14:55
xG 1.58–0.83 (66%)attempts 23–17goals 2–0
- Connauton – Oesterle15:03
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson15:29
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Saad – Kampf9:14
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:50
xG 0.97–0.86 (53%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Kane – Schmaltz – Fortin10:22
xG 0.51–0.64 (45%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Hayden9:18
xG 0.15–0.71 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Keith – Jokiharju15:17
xG 0.97–0.95 (51%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson15:34
xG 1.02–1.06 (49%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Manning – Rutta12:02
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).