Tue, Oct 23, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 212 | 110 | 14 | 426 |
| CBJ | 112 | 012 | 012 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:08ARIChristian FischerAssists: Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 12:23ARIDylan StromePPGWGAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 0:29ARIChristian FischerAssists: Derek Stepan, Brendan Perlini · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 4:44ARIChristian FischerAssists: Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:48ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:25CBJDean Kukan: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 4:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:42ARINick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:42CBJAnthony Duclair: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:01CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:29ARIKevin Connauton: Interference2 min
- P3 5:44CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:57ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57CBJLukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Perlini – Fischer10:00
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Strome6:40
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza9:18
xG 0.05–0.54 (8%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Crouse – Keller9:00
xG 0.38–0.96 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson3:13
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton12:54
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson12:14
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois4:55
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg3:41
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Duclair – Wennberg2:40
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand4:12
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Kukan10:39
xG 1.29–0.44 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:50
xG 1.24–0.92 (57%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Murray – Nutivaara11:43
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).