Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 18 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 427 |
| CGY | 29 | 06 | 111 | 04 | 1 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:27WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 14:42CGYTravis HamonicAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 16:54CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:03WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Brett Connolly, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:33CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 5. CGY James Neal stopped
- 6. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 7. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 8. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:10CGYJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:37WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 13:49CGYDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45WSHBrett Connolly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:13CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:53WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:48WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:04
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson4:36
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Connolly – Jaskin3:49
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson3:25
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bowey6:38
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen6:08
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny17:15
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Lindholm – Dube8:29
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Czarnik – Dube2:38
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Lindholm – Bennett3:10
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Hathaway – Ryan7:25
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:44
xG 1.04–0.54 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Brodie – Hanifin2:21
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Välimäki10:11
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).