Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Arizona Coyotes 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 07 | 111 | 131 |
| ARI | 39 | 214 | 27 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55ARIJordan OesterleAssists: Brad Richardson, Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:51ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Jason Demers, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 12:57ARIDerek StepanAssists: Brendan Perlini, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 8:26ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Alex Goligoski, Antti Raanta · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 11:48ARIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 8:59ARIMichael GrabnerSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–6
- P3 9:27TBLAdam ErnePPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 12:50ARIRichard PanikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:19TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:27ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:53TBLRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P1 19:29TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:52ARIChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:18ARIClayton Keller: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:47TBLAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:49ARIDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:27ARIBrendan Perlini: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Kucherov9:26
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Killorn – Erne – Cirelli3:22
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Erne – Joseph – Cirelli4:57
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Point – Joseph3:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev4:01
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi8:36
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Stralman – McDonagh7:50
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Galchenyuk – Keller8:40
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Cousins – Hinostroza – Crouse2:13
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Perlini – Fischer9:25
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza3:38
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle10:13
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson3:09
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Connauton – Oesterle3:54
xG 0.03–0.18 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).