Tue, Oct 30, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 117 | 19 | 336 |
| ANA | 07 | 19 | 19 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 1:45ANAPontus AbergAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:57PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Claude Giroux, Nolan Patrick · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 17:48ANAPontus AbergPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 18:09PHINolan PatrickGWGAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Robert Hagg · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:28ANAMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:19PHIDale Weise: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39ANAJoseph Blandisi: Interference2 min
- P2 19:58PHIJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:38ANAJoseph Blandisi: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 14:12ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:27PHIJordan Weal: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weal won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny12:22
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick10:19
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Weal9:30
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Aube-Kubel5:13
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Provorov14:56
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Folin10:34
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Gudas – Sanheim9:10
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Lundeström8:21
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Street – Blandisi – Steel7:04
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Gibbons9:05
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Aberg14:22
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Welinski16:54
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Larsson15:48
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Montour11:45
xG 0.21–0.80 (21%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).