Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 013 | 223 | 248 |
| OTT | 112 | 212 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Chris Wideman · Snap, 0.48 xG0–1
- P2 1:00OTTDylan DeMeloAssists: Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:47OTTColin WhitePPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 0:59BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:55BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:40OTTBobby RyanENAssists: Mark Stone, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:42BUFJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:39BUFMarco Scandella: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:27OTTChris Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:22BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:42OTTDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:58BUFKyle Okposo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00BUFPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:22OTTMark Stone: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14OTTBobby Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel13:33
xG 0.86–0.25 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Elie – Reinhart – Mittelstadt3:09
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons3:00
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Elie4:13
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen12:13
xG 0.54–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella12:13
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Dahlin2:04
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – McCormick – Paul2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – White6:38
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel7:42
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Formenton5:02
xG 0.03–0.29 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Chabot2:50
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie2:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Ceci2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).