Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 215 | 04 | 25 | 424 |
| TBL | 013 | 117 | 013 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 19:53NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 14:21TBLSlater KoekkoekAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:42NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 17:36NSHMiikka SalomakiENAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:41TBLBrayden Point: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:30NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Jarnkrok12:56
xG 0.53–0.46 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Grimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau6:35
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Sissons13:19
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hartman – Fiala11:25
xG 0.14–0.67 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:21
xG 0.83–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
- Subban – Ekholm18:37
xG 0.60–1.01 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin12:23
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Point13:20
xG 1.17–0.39 (75%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli12:05
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne8:51
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller13:23
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh16:15
xG 0.96–0.82 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Girardi – Koekkoek13:58
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev15:39
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).