Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 5, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 410 | 112 | 526 |
| CGY | 013 | 113 | 511 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:22COLVladislav KamenevSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:12COLSheldon DriesAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 6:34CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 11:04COLColin WilsonAssists: Sheldon Dries, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:41COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 0:47CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 5:21CGYSean MonahanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Derek Ryan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 10:52CGYJames NealAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 13:47CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 14:54CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–6
- P3 18:57COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Alexander Kerfoot · Other, 0.76 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:34CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:31COLMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:20COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:53CGYSam Bennett: Instigator2 min
- P2 16:53COLIan Cole: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:53CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:53COLIan Cole: Charging5 min
- P2 16:53CGYSam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:53COLIan Cole: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:47CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Dries2:05
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Kamenev3:23
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Bourque – Dano – Dries3:15
xG 0.03–0.24 (12%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto5:28
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov2:09
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie8:22
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Barberio – Barrie2:27
xG 0.02–0.15 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:34
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 3–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett5:24
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Gaudreau – Lindholm5:12
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Monahan – Ryan – Dube2:26
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:20
xG 1.30–0.57 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 3–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:12
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 20–8goals 1–2
- Andersson – Välimäki12:05
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).