Sat, Nov 3, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 217 | 23 | 533 |
| PIT | 09 | 09 | 013 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:44TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 11:49TORMorgan RiellyAssists: John Tavares, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 15:33TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.41 xG4–0
- P3 19:40TORZach HymanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:46TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:21TORIgor Ozhiganov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:22TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:37PITJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:38PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:32TORIgor Ozhiganov: Holding2 min
- P3 14:42PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:11TORConnor Brown: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner13:29
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen8:27
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier5:54
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Johnsson – Lindholm7:08
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:54
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov10:51
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:31
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Grant – Sprong6:20
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Rust – Guentzel2:41
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Simon3:20
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin12:18
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Ruhwedel10:10
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Letang4:14
xG 0.06–0.14 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:01
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).