Sun, Nov 4, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 114 | 221 | 12 | 445 |
| OTT | 213 | 08 | 14 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:49OTTMaxime LajoiePPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 0:38TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Adam Erne · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 3:04TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 15:16OTTCody CeciAssists: Chris Tierney, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 19:33TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:14TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:32TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:15OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:05TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:48OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 5:00TBLAdam Erne: Interference2 min
- P3 18:20OTTMikkel Boedker: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:48
xG 1.11–0.35 (76%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller12:01
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point11:12
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne10:57
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev13:54
xG 1.22–0.18 (87%)attempts 30–11goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh19:43
xG 1.07–0.37 (74%)attempts 28–14goals 1–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek12:48
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – White10:12
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Ryan – McCormick – Paul3:17
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel14:18
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney11:39
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Chabot2:12
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros11:12
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot13:52
xG 0.32–0.93 (26%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).