Sat, Nov 10, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 08 | 413 | 634 |
| TBL | 111 | 312 | 05 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Colin White · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:21OTTBobby RyanAssists: Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 8:49TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 0:39TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 9:15TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Alex Killorn, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:32TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 0:50OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 8:41OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 10:30OTTRyan DzingelGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 19:48OTTMark StonePPAssists: Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:38OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:13TBLDanick Martel: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:22OTTChristian Jaros: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:55TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04OTTMax McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:37TBLMathieu Joseph: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:24TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk10:09
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel2:06
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel2:47
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney8:53
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie8:56
xG 0.49–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie6:21
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot6:00
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 2–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:53
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point11:44
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:16
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Martel10:43
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh6:22
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev4:56
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi2:15
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).