Sun, Nov 11, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 25 | 15 | 422 |
| WSH | 010 | 116 | 013 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:56ARIVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 11:57ARIRichard PanikGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 12:41WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:38ARIAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Brendan Perlini, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 18:28ARIDerek StepanENAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:15WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:00WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:43ARIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:22WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34ARIDylan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:58WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:58WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:10WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Hinostroza8:56
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Archibald – Cousins – Strome6:51
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller10:34
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Panik – Galchenyuk – Fischer9:12
xG 0.08–0.54 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Oesterle13:39
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Connauton – Lyubushkin8:48
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:23
xG 0.27–1.17 (19%)attempts 8–24goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Stephenson – Vrana5:25
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom15:14
xG 0.85–0.73 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson3:35
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Burakovsky – Vrana2:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny2:08
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bowey – Kempny2:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov14:15
xG 0.87–0.73 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).