Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 38 | 28 | 13 | 626 |
| PHI | 018 | 116 | 411 | 00 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:02TBLAdam ErnePPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Louis Domingue · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:10TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Adam Erne, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 14:33PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 17:05TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ryan Callahan, Adam Erne · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 8:57TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 9:08TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 10:24PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 11:29PHISean CouturierPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–3
- P3 15:58PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 16:28PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Robert Hagg, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–5
- OT 1:47TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:37TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:30PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 1:12TBLVictor Hedman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:29PHIScott Laughton: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 13:12TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:15PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:47PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57TBLErik Cernak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:16TBLJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller12:45
xG 0.67–0.84 (44%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne8:56
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point12:07
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:42
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:04
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Coburn – Sergachev13:19
xG 0.76–1.10 (41%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Girardi – Hedman13:49
xG 0.26–0.64 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Laughton – Aube-Kubel4:41
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal10:52
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:43
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick9:31
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Provorov17:17
xG 1.44–0.60 (71%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Gudas – Sanheim12:54
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere9:48
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).