Wed, Nov 21, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 29 | 09 | 225 |
| BUF | 412 | 05 | 14 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 5:20BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 8:55BUFEvan RodriguesPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P1 19:52BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 5:26PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 13:51PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jordan Weal, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 18:22BUFSam ReinhartENAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:19PHIJordan Weal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:55BUFJohan Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:55PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:31PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 10:57PHICalvin Pickard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal9:31
xG 0.44–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Laughton3:55
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick8:19
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:37
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:53
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim10:15
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel11:18
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues8:33
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt12:10
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reinhart – Thompson8:51
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin15:53
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:57
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
- Beaulieu – Nelson10:58
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).