Wed, Nov 21, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 26 | 03 | 15 | 325 |
| ARI | 112 | 03 | 16 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:08ARIDerek StepanAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:50VGKTomas NosekAssists: Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:51VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 13:11ARIDerek StepanPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 3:36VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:28VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:33ARIAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:38ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:33VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:05VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:13
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch13:08
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Hyka – Carpenter – Nosek6:14
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare10:08
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Theodore15:05
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt14:33
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Holden – Miller15:38
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Strome – Crouse5:44
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza12:09
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Perlini – Strome – Crouse2:58
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Perlini – Fischer7:03
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Ekman-Larsson4:43
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin2:08
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun11:32
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).