Sat, Nov 24, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 05 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 335 |
| DET | 013 | 111 | 112 | 01 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 0:53DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 7:40BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 13:52DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 3. DET Thomas Vanek stopped
- 4. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 6. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 7. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 8. BUF Conor Sheary stopped
- 9. DET Andreas Athanasiou scored
- 10. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 11. DET Justin Abdelkader stopped
- 12. BUF Jeff Skinner stopped
- 13. DET Michael Rasmussen stopped
- 14. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:48DETMichael Rasmussen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:22BUFJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:17DETTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:49BUFMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:15BUFSam Reinhart: Interference2 min
- P3 6:01DETThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:48BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- OT 0:55DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt11:11
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Elie – Rodrigues7:29
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:11
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson9:28
xG 0.55–0.71 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin17:19
xG 0.88–0.67 (57%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Nelson12:10
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:58
xG 0.55–0.93 (37%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Mantha – Larkin11:58
xG 1.04–0.43 (71%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Vanek – de la Rose – Ehn4:17
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Athanasiou9:29
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen8:19
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Cholowski10:14
xG 0.78–0.27 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green3:27
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:20
xG 0.85–1.06 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).