Tue, Dec 4, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 018 | 312 | 015 | 345 |
| PIT | 310 | 011 | 311 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:52PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Tanner Pearson, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 7:27PITDerick BrassardAssists: Olli Maatta, Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 8:16COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 9:32COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Calvert, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 13:17COLMatt NietoSHAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 6:11PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–4
- P3 7:32PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 8:58PITPatric HornqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:47PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42PITKris Letang: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:59PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:44COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P3 5:47COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:48PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:48COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:01COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:30
xG 1.08–0.59 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:28
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Wilson – Compher – Jost9:05
xG 0.91–0.83 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Bourque – Kerfoot – Kamenev6:37
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nemeth2:05
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole3:58
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Cole – Barrie10:36
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 0–3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Pearson10:51
xG 0.95–0.69 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 3–1
- Brassard – Kessel – Aston-Reese10:36
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon4:37
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel3:42
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta15:50
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:52
xG 0.95–1.01 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 3–1
- Johnson – Letang2:11
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).