Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 211 | 219 | 543 |
| OTT | 110 | 18 | 03 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58OTTMark StoneAssists: Colin White · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:18MTLJeff PetryAssists: Michael Chaput, Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 11:03MTLPaul ByronAssists: Phillip Danault, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:42MTLAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 18:50OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 3:19MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 17:28MTLPaul ByronENAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:17OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:36OTTMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:27MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:03OTTBen Harpur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:56
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino8:41
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:17
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi12:20
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Schlemko17:38
xG 1.25–0.51 (71%)attempts 28–12goals 2–0
- Weber – Kulak19:56
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Benn – Reilly12:22
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:21
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Boedker – Batherson2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney2:42
xG 0.02–0.06 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Batherson3:14
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Ceci12:38
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Harpur6:41
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Harpur – Jaros6:51
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).