Sat, Dec 8, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 210 | 13 | 319 |
| DET | 27 | 08 | 010 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 13:53DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:31NYICasey CizikasAssists: Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 6:57NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 3:24NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:51DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P1 18:39NYIJosh Bailey: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:39DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:39NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:32DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:17DETDennis Cholowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:36DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:36NYIJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:36NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:36DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:04NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:02
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:47
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Johnston5:01
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson7:03
xG 0.09–0.54 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech9:59
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield3:20
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock13:18
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin6:51
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin3:23
xG 0.12–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou7:05
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen6:05
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green11:44
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – Cholowski2:50
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Green – Jensen2:33
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).