Sat, Dec 8, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 011 | 011 | 130 |
| TBL | 313 | 315 | 110 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:15TBLSteven StamkosGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 14:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 16:26TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 2:00TBLAlex KillornAssists: Yanni Gourde, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 7:59TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 10:01TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–6
- P3 3:29TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:28COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:12TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:00COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25TBLSteven Stamkos: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:41COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:45TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto5:24
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Nieto – Andrighetto – Compher2:09
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Kamenev2:29
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:54
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Zadorov12:18
xG 0.39–0.71 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Cole – Barrie15:50
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 15–17goals 0–4
- Johnson – Girard15:50
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli9:02
xG 1.09–0.06 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph12:12
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde8:58
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point10:54
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman13:34
xG 1.31–0.22 (86%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev13:33
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:34
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).