Mon, Dec 10, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 05 | 113 | 326 |
| TBL | 113 | 216 | 37 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19NYRKevin HayesAssists: Ryan Strome, Vladislav Namestnikov · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:07NYRKevin HayesAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 6:19TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:42TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 10:17TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 10:41TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 17:34NYRJesper FastAssists: Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 19:21TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Alex Killorn, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:02NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:14TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:25NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:23NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:52NYRNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:45NYRNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:17TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:17NYRMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Howden – Chytil7:40
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Namestnikov9:32
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Hayes – Strome – Vesey10:12
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Fogarty – Andersson6:49
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Skjei2:41
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Claesson – Pionk6:12
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson4:01
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli12:51
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph7:04
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point10:55
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde8:57
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:12
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev14:47
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Girardi – Hedman12:19
xG 0.42–0.86 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).