Tue, Dec 11, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 17 | 27 | 429 |
| CAR | 08 | 110 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35TORTyler EnnisAssists: Frederik Gauthier, Travis Dermott · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 12:44CARJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 13:51TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:49TORPatrick MarleauAssists: William Nylander, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 8:29TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:31TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:07CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30TORRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:22TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P3 3:20TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:41CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P3 17:49CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:57CARBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Gauthier – Lindholm6:06
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Nylander10:59
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews10:22
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Tavares – Brown – Marner9:07
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Ozhiganov2:25
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov9:10
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev14:46
xG 0.50–0.94 (35%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Martinook – Aho8:17
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Williams – Wallmark – Svechnikov10:56
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Bishop3:17
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – McGinn – Bishop3:10
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk12:51
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce3:46
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin10:05
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).