Tue, Dec 11, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 217 | 113 | 335 |
| WPG | 315 | 110 | 29 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:01WPGTyler MyersAssists: Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 13:38WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 1:44WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 2:04CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 7:09CHIDominik KahunAssists: Henri Jokiharju, David Kampf · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 6:08CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 11:36WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–5
- P3 19:55WPGBrandon TanevENAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:37CHIJan Rutta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:15WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:52CHIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:28CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:45CHIJan Rutta: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Kampf – Kahun4:03
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Fortin5:05
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Perlini3:51
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat8:37
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Jokiharju9:21
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:47
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – Rutta2:32
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev11:34
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Little – Connor – Laine10:21
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Lemieux – Roslovic – Appleton5:52
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:50
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov11:20
xG 0.62–0.06 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:56
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey15:08
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).