Thu, Dec 13, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 013 | 06 | 126 |
| BUF | 27 | 015 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:54BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 7:19ARIChristian FischerAssists: Richard Panik · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:28BUFEvan RodriguesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P3 0:56BUFLawrence Pilut: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:18BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:37ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Bunting – Garland7:16
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Fischer8:28
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Stepan – Panik – Garland3:35
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Archibald – Cousins12:19
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson14:23
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–3
- Ekman-Larsson – Chychrun2:18
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Chychrun16:19
xG 0.38–0.83 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sobotka – Thompson10:33
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt8:47
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel15:38
xG 0.87–0.57 (61%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues12:32
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Pilut17:26
xG 1.19–0.44 (73%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Tennyson10:05
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).