Fri, Dec 14, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Arizona Coyotes 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 113 | 28 | 14 | 434 |
| NYR | 210 | 112 | 07 | 01 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Filip Chytil, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:26NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 5:48NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 10:42ARIJordan OesterlePPAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 13:11ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:59ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 4:28ARIDerek StepanGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:05ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:13NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P1 17:00ARIBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11ARINick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:11NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:41ARIAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:02NYRBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:14NYRNeal Pionk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:14ARIChristian Fischer: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:14NYRNeal Pionk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:12NYRTony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:52ARIRichard Panik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:52ARIJordan Oesterle: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:26ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:06NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Fischer7:12
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller6:15
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Archibald2:30
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Cousins – Schmaltz – Keller6:25
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Chychrun3:33
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Oesterle2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun8:34
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Namestnikov – Howden5:07
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Strome – Vesey2:43
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov2:52
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Hayes – Buchnevich6:37
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Claesson8:41
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:38
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Claesson – Pionk2:15
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).