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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington

Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BUF182905071329
WSH210115010032438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:41BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:39WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:41WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:25BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:21BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
  6. P2 13:46WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
  2. 2. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
  3. 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
  4. 4. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
  5. 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  6. 6. BUF Casey Mittelstadt scored
  7. 7. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
  8. 8. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:41WSHMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 10:12BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 0:50WSHMichal Kempny: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:10WSHMadison Bowey: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:12BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
  6. P2 11:51WSHMichal Kempny: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 11:51BUFSam Reinhart: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 14:42BUFZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:16BUFMarco Scandella: Delaying game2 min
  10. OT 3:29WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
  11. OT 3:29BUFEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
46% to win54% to win
← BUF attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Eichel
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFWSH
29Shots on goal38
3.8Expected goals3.6
54Shot attempts77
27Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
12Penalty minutes10
16Hits32
13Blocked shots12
8Giveaways13
6Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestOkposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:26

    xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

  2. Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues7:42

    xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1

  3. Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:07

    xG 0.51–0.84 (38%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1

  4. Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson11:18

    xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBogosian – Dahlin14:20

    xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0

  2. Bogosian – Ristolainen2:32

    xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  3. Bogosian – Scandella4:44

    xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:59

    xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0

  2. Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:21

    xG 0.87–0.44 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0

  3. Eller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly9:07

    xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0

  4. Dowd – Boyd – Stephenson7:06

    xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarlson – Kempny13:54

    xG 1.29–0.40 (76%)attempts 26–9goals 2–0

  2. Niskanen – Siegenthaler4:51

    xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  3. Bowey – Kempny2:23

    xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.6 xGBUF 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #344 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.99 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).