Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 4, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 213 | 220 | 442 |
| COL | 320 | 18 | 29 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:57COLMatt CalvertAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P1 19:45COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 8:36DALEsa LindellSHAssists: Mattias Janmark, Taylor Fedun · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 9:20DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 14:53COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:14DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Taylor Fedun, Alexander Radulov · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 15:24DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–4
- P3 16:40COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 18:37COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:28DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:16COLA.J. Greer: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:51DALJason Dickinson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:17DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:53DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:24COLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:40DALMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:01DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:20DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:20COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Gurianov5:25
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Hanzal – Nichushkin3:05
xG 0.13–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin5:56
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Comeau – Faksa – Dickinson3:42
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHonka – Heiskanen8:37
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Fedun – Bayreuther5:40
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Fedun – Heiskanen5:01
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:10
xG 0.79–0.63 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:26
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost10:14
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Greer4:54
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov9:31
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard12:37
xG 0.73–0.69 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
- Cole – Barrie11:22
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).