Fri, Dec 21, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 011 | 117 | 137 |
| WSH | 08 | 18 | 18 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:50WSHChandler StephensonSHAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 9:01BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 13:00WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:32BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:28WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:37WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12BUFEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P2 9:38BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Holding2 min
- P3 9:24WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:23BUFVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:48WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Sheary – Rodrigues9:12
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Elie – Thompson4:06
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:02
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Thompson3:34
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Pilut12:20
xG 0.85–0.21 (81%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin13:27
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Scandella – McCabe10:40
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky5:29
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:22
xG 0.59–0.62 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:25
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson7:38
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Siegenthaler10:26
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Bowey – Kempny3:04
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov13:46
xG 0.36–0.60 (38%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).