Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 210 | 09 | 433 |
| OTT | 013 | 012 | 010 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:56WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 9:05WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 13:44WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:33WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:58OTTColin White: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:11WSHTyler Lewington: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:18OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:21OTTNick Paul: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:09
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:48
xG 0.88–0.94 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Stephenson8:30
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky11:21
xG 0.46–1.07 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLewington – Siegenthaler12:10
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov18:42
xG 1.41–1.35 (51%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny16:32
xG 1.23–1.24 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk12:22
xG 1.46–0.42 (78%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Paul4:33
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Paul2:29
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Duchene – Dzingel2:34
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo2:41
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot7:29
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur4:20
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).