Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 4, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 07 | 310 | 428 |
| ARI | 29 | 212 | 218 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58ARIRichard PanikAssists: Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:13COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Sven Andrighetto, J.T. Compher · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:55ARIDerek StepanAssists: Clayton Keller, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P2 2:30ARIChristian FischerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Galchenyuk · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 8:28ARIConor GarlandAssists: Mario Kempe, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 5:22COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 7:39COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Matt Nieto, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 11:51COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Nieto, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 16:21ARIBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 19:48ARIBrad RichardsonENAssists: Nick Cousins, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:57ARIMario Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:52ARIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:14COLAlexander Kerfoot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:57COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:40ARIDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:25ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:25COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher8:28
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bourque – Greer – Jost4:59
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:31
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto5:12
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie8:25
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Lindholm4:50
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Cole3:28
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Archibald – Cousins7:29
xG 0.22–0.00 (99%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Crouse – Garland4:58
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller7:13
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Galchenyuk – Schmaltz – Fischer7:25
xG 0.83–1.08 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson12:38
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin7:04
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun10:46
xG 0.09–1.19 (7%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).