Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 17 | 07 | 324 |
| OTT | 07 | 113 | 113 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tyler Lewington · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:00WSHTyler LewingtonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 1:01WSHMadison BoweyGWGAssists: Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 4:22OTTColin WhiteAssists: Mark Stone, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 16:30OTTMark StoneAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Colin White · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:37WSHMadison Bowey: Interference2 min
- P2 4:55WSHMadison Bowey: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:55WSHMadison Bowey: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 4:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:36OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:36WSHTyler Lewington: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky12:17
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:35
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson9:57
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:27
xG 0.23–1.01 (19%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Lewington2:51
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lewington – Siegenthaler10:22
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:25
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Stone – White6:16
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Pyatt – Tierney3:20
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk9:21
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Smith – Duchene – Dzingel4:38
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo9:28
xG 1.24–0.13 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Harpur – Wolanin8:28
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur7:14
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).