Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 315 | 28 | 634 |
| WSH | 29 | 110 | 06 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:45WSHJakub VranaAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 9:08NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:22WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 9:57NSHMiikka SalomakiAssists: Nick Bonino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:59NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- P2 14:30NSHFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 10:35NSHRyan EllisAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 18:00NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:35WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:29WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Fiala8:43
xG 0.98–0.43 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Grimaldi – Gaudreau5:13
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Johansen – Hartman – Arvidsson14:59
xG 0.94–0.89 (51%)attempts 19–19goals 2–1
- Bonino – Watson – Salomaki11:16
xG 0.22–0.56 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bitetto10:44
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis21:19
xG 1.22–0.84 (59%)attempts 22–23goals 2–2
- Subban – Ekholm16:49
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana2:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Stephenson7:13
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson4:30
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana7:06
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bowey10:30
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson2:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Orlov – Siegenthaler13:36
xG 0.59–0.75 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).