Mon, Dec 31, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 015 | 115 | 23 | 333 |
| BUF | 012 | 015 | 113 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:59NYILeo KomarovAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.00 xG1–0
- P3 1:45NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 10:14BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:28NYIRyan PulockENAssists: Robin Lehner · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:35BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:41BUFJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:32NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:07NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Ho-Sang13:18
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Komarov – Cizikas – Dal Colle5:13
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:24
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Dal Colle – Barzal3:04
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews15:00
xG 0.95–0.45 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:43
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:29
xG 0.12–0.81 (13%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sobotka – Thompson7:22
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Rodrigues7:14
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt5:52
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Skinner – Reinhart2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen14:11
xG 1.11–0.38 (74%)attempts 25–10goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dahlin10:05
xG 0.30–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dahlin3:20
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).