Thu, Jan 3, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 113 | 215 | 338 |
| BUF | 212 | 011 | 210 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:15BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:42FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 1:20BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Lawrence Pilut, Zach Bogosian · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:15FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 16:14BUFJeff SkinnerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 18:31FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:24BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:59FLAMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:51FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:26FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:33BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov8:26
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hawryluk – Malgin4:48
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano4:21
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – McCann – Lammikko2:18
xG 0.01–0.06 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Kiselevich10:03
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:57
xG 0.90–0.95 (49%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
- Pysyk – Matheson16:14
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:22
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Smith11:24
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Elie – Mittelstadt6:16
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Mittelstadt2:00
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dahlin10:39
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Pilut12:05
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen18:04
xG 0.63–0.97 (40%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).