Fri, Jan 4, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 112 | 110 | 02 | 330 |
| DET | 014 | 211 | 113 | 11 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:36NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:01NSHCraig SmithAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 4:24DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:35DETThomas VanekAssists: Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:57DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:44NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 4:34DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:35DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:35NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:49NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P2 7:31DETDennis Cholowski: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:39NSHDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:27DETThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P3 13:41DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- OT 0:51NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Hartman2:38
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Johansen – Di Giuseppe – Arvidsson5:19
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Di Giuseppe2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:11
xG 1.01–0.81 (55%)attempts 24–12goals 1–2
- Josi – Ellis17:59
xG 0.60–0.91 (39%)attempts 11–24goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bitetto11:14
xG 0.00–0.67 (0%)attempts 1–17goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin14:09
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Mantha10:07
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou9:33
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen6:29
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Witkowski9:52
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Cholowski11:18
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Hronek14:53
xG 0.72–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).