Sat, Jan 12, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 013 | 29 | 17 | 329 |
| EDM | 111 | 17 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ty Rattie · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:16ARIJordan OesterleAssists: Lawson Crouse, Mario Kempe · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:08ARIConor GarlandPPAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Alex Galchenyuk · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 17:00EDMKris RussellAssists: Zack Kassian, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:54ARIConor GarlandPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.63 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:16EDMTy Rattie: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40ARIMario Kempe: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:50EDMKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Weal – Fischer – Keller11:54
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse11:10
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Stepan – Panik – Hinostroza15:39
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland5:57
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle17:09
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin14:34
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson18:14
xG 0.21–0.68 (23%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid4:56
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian4:17
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid7:40
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Draisaitl5:57
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones15:38
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse21:45
xG 1.43–0.98 (59%)attempts 16–20goals 2–1
- Gravel – Benning10:32
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).