Sun, Jan 13, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 112 | 06 | 123 |
| CGY | 211 | 27 | 38 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:51CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Derek Ryan, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:59CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 1:36CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 17:20CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 19:44ARIJordan OesterlePPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 4:20CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 6:16CGYMark GiordanoAssists: TJ Brodie, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 7:15CGYSam BennettAssists: James Neal, Mark Jankowski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:28CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:54ARIClayton Keller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:58CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:56CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse10:18
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland10:45
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Weal – Fischer – Keller9:30
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Stepan – Panik – Hinostroza12:23
xG 0.22–0.50 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson12:25
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin4:01
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson4:08
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:38
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan12:29
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:55
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett8:50
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:42
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 5–0
- Prout – Kylington17:41
xG 0.55–0.19 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:49
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).