Wed, Jan 16, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 112 | 112 | 232 |
| OTT | 013 | 38 | 210 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:06OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Chris Tierney, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 3:13OTTMark StoneAssists: Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:01OTTRyan DzingelGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 18:53COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 7:49OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P3 16:01COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:58OTTMatt DucheneENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:56OTTChristian Jaros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:28COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 4:07COLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:53COLSemyon Varlamov: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:13OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:13OTTChristian Jaros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Wilson – Compher8:33
xG 0.41–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Jost – Dries3:59
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Kerfoot5:11
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:36
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barberio2:47
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole2:22
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Paajarvi – Pageau14:38
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel7:23
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Boedker – Duchene – Balcers2:39
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Tierney – Tkachuk8:27
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Jaros14:00
xG 1.21–0.36 (77%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
- Ceci – Wolanin5:52
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Chabot9:08
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).