Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 01 | 213 | 310 | 524 |
| MTL | 012 | 010 | 213 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:01PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 18:34PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Robert Hagg, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 7:06PHINolan PatrickGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 7:36MTLMax DomiAssists: Tomas Tatar, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:32PHINolan PatrickAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 16:00MTLBrett KulakAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 19:08PHIMichael RafflENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:09MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min
- P3 1:37MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick10:54
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:22
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom11:44
xG 0.12–0.44 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Varone – Raffl5:17
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Gudas15:11
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg11:06
xG 0.56–0.82 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 3–1
- Sanheim – Provorov19:01
xG 0.36–0.62 (36%)attempts 11–25goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lehkonen – Domi10:30
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Armia – Hudon – Kotkaniemi11:28
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino7:10
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin14:18
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly14:24
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Benn – Kulak13:09
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete16:42
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).