Sun, Jan 20, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 211 | 214 | 431 |
| TOR | 111 | 05 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45TORTravis DermottAssists: William Nylander, Frederik Gauthier · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:16ARIMario KempeAssists: Lawson Crouse, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:19ARIClayton KellerAssists: Christian Fischer, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:12TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:44ARIVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Jordan Oesterle · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:22ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Derek Stepan, Jordan Oesterle · Backhand, 0.74 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:23TORMartin Marincin: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00TORNikita Zaitsev: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:16TORFrederik Gauthier: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 16:33ARIDarcy Kuemper: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00TORConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Hinostroza10:03
xG 0.96–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Cousins – Fischer – Keller5:01
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Weal – Fischer – Keller3:33
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland3:51
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin11:55
xG 0.27–0.33 (44%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson15:35
xG 0.79–0.98 (45%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Oesterle14:32
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Kapanen8:57
xG 0.67–0.18 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:47
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Nylander – Lindholm3:34
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Brown – Nylander – Matthews2:37
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott3:50
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:03
xG 0.81–0.73 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Marincin – Ozhiganov10:07
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).