Tue, Jan 22, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 110 | 211 | 012 | 333 |
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:39ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 1:09OTTBobby RyanAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:31ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Kevin Connauton, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 6:25ARIDerek StepanGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 7:35OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:29ARIChristian Fischer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:36OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:46ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Hinostroza14:18
xG 1.18–0.45 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Cousins – Fischer – Keller9:23
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller3:14
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse8:43
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun4:54
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton6:50
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Connauton – Oesterle2:42
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel14:03
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Stone – Tierney – Tkachuk5:11
xG 0.21–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau5:37
xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Pageau – Tkachuk4:41
xG 0.04–0.04 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Jaros9:43
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot5:26
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie10:17
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).