Wed, Jan 23, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 212 | 02 | 227 |
| VGK | 118 | 016 | 014 | 148 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Alex Tuch, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 0:52NSHRyan JohansenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 3:53NSHNick BoninoGWGAssists: Austin Watson, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:23VGKJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:19NSHP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:38VGKJon Merrill: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:33VGKRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:33NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:33NSHP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:36NSHRyan Ellis: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:31NSHRocco Grimaldi: Holding2 min
- P3 12:45VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:21NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Watson8:03
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:50
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Grimaldi – Hartman6:57
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Sissons – Fiala8:09
xG 0.03–1.16 (2%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:08
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin8:45
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Josi11:08
xG 0.22–0.71 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Bellemare – Nosek10:08
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch9:45
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter8:57
xG 0.72–0.62 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Karlsson – Marchessault8:16
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt12:44
xG 1.05–0.45 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore12:56
xG 0.99–0.58 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller13:11
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).