Wed, Jan 30, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 016 | 06 | 213 | 235 |
| PIT | 35 | 110 | 07 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25PITRiley SheahanAssists: Garrett Wilson, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 8:05PITPhil KesselAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 8:21PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 6:02PITKris LetangAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 15:50TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Alex Killorn, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 17:56TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:00TBLRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:26TBLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
- P2 1:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:20PITBrian Dumoulin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:20TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:40PITEvgeni Malkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:40TBLSteven Stamkos: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:36PITTeddy Blueger: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:36TBLCedric Paquette: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:36TBLAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:41PITMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli9:00
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point14:59
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde8:51
xG 0.44–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph7:45
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev13:31
xG 0.75–0.18 (80%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:28
xG 0.61–0.41 (59%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Girardi – Hedman14:28
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon14:19
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Wilson – Sheahan – Blueger5:29
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust11:35
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Sheahan2:35
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola12:16
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Johnson – Pettersson12:45
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:18
xG 0.44–0.96 (31%)attempts 13–27goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).