Tue, Feb 5, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 319 | 113 | 03 | 0 | 445 |
| BUF | 111 | 211 | 112 | 05 | 1 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31BUFEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:29MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:32BUFC.J. SmithAssists: Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:33BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 13:43MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Luke Kunin, Ryan Suter · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 17:05MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Luke Kunin, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- P3 6:25BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe · Slap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 18:23MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. MIN Victor Rask stopped
- 3. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 4. MIN Jason Zucker stopped
- 5. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
- 6. MIN Zach Parise stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:56MINMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:36BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:25MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:01BUFTage Thompson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Kunin10:50
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund14:14
xG 1.00–0.60 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle2:37
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Greenway9:32
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin18:01
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon18:47
xG 0.76–0.79 (49%)attempts 20–17goals 2–0
- Bitetto – Hunt8:52
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt2:56
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel4:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Eichel10:22
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Mittelstadt7:54
xG 0.05–0.28 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – McCabe14:42
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin18:25
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Pilut10:48
xG 0.47–0.85 (35%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).