Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 111 | 112 | 06 | 1 | 337 |
| TBL | 110 | 14 | 012 | 00 | 0 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 14:19TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Steven Stamkos, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 16:28VGKCody EakinAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:22VGKValentin ZykovAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. VGK Brandon Pirri stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. VGK Alex Tuch scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:52VGKNate Schmidt: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:38VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:11TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:44VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:03VGKJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:31VGKCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:18TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:38TBLMathieu Joseph: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Tuch11:05
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Zykov10:39
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Karlsson – Tuch2:26
xG 0.07–0.05 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Eakin8:08
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt13:52
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller12:36
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore13:07
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph6:57
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point12:01
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde10:59
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli10:51
xG 0.12–0.45 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Sergachev12:55
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Stralman – Hedman15:18
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:05
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).