Wed, Feb 6, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 116 | 217 | 444 |
| TOR | 111 | 312 | 17 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:18OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Maxime Lajoie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:35OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:20TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Frederik Gauthier · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:29TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 18:20TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 0:40OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 3:59OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 9:12TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (2)
- P2 5:48TORJake Gardiner: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:16OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel12:21
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–2
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau12:21
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Stone – White – Tkachuk13:39
xG 0.93–0.53 (64%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Tierney – Rodewald – Balcers5:58
xG 0.01–0.28 (4%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot16:00
xG 1.67–0.52 (76%)attempts 23–12goals 1–2
- Ceci – Chabot2:20
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie15:07
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner14:42
xG 1.06–0.45 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Brown – Gauthier – Lindholm2:23
xG 0.01–0.02 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Gauthier – Lindholm4:00
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Johnsson – Nylander4:05
xG 0.05–0.24 (19%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Dermott11:33
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly4:59
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).