Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 214 | 15 | 432 |
| TBL | 219 | 18 | 27 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:36PITGarrett WilsonAssists: Teddy Blueger, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:02TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:59TBLErik CernakAssists: Cedric Paquette, Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:42TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Alex Killorn, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 8:31PITJared McCannAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 15:04PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 4:54TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 14:03TBLJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 15:22PITTanner PearsonAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P2 7:19TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45PITNick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:16PITTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:16TBLAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:14TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41PITJack Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:41TBLAlex Killorn: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:39PITPatric Hornqvist: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:39TBLAdam Erne: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Wilson – Blueger6:18
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:44
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bjugstad – Pearson11:45
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon10:27
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson20:32
xG 0.86–0.76 (53%)attempts 21–18goals 1–2
- Letang – Dumoulin2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (3%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Maatta – Riikola17:46
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli8:48
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Palat4:38
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point9:18
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph7:54
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak16:29
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev16:09
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).