Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 312 | 17 | 528 |
| COL | 117 | 010 | 19 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:16COLRyan GravesAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:19TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 6:46TORNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 7:08TORKasperi KapanenPPAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–1
- P3 5:42TORNazem KadriAssists: William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 8:14COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:09TORKasperi Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:39COLA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:30COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19COLJ.T. Compher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 16:33COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:08TORTravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:35TORFrederik Gauthier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:41COLSven Andrighetto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Johnsson – Nylander7:23
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews9:59
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Brown – Gauthier – Lindholm8:16
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner10:39
xG 0.06–0.90 (6%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Rielly6:15
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Dermott11:00
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Zaitsev9:08
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:45
xG 1.09–0.03 (97%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Greer – Dries4:56
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:22
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost8:57
xG 0.12–0.55 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov6:18
xG 1.00–0.33 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard6:38
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov4:21
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).