Sat, Feb 16, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 5, Philadelphia Flyers 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 09 | 418 | 00 | 538 |
| PHI | 113 | 27 | 210 | 12 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Nolan Patrick, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:07DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Mike Green · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:59PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 4:02PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 0:31PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Oskar Lindblom · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 1:24PHINolan PatrickAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–5
- P3 2:39DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 3:23DETThomas VanekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 8:36DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Christoffer Ehn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:53DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 1:27PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:08DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:00PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:30PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:30DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVanek – de la Rose – Mantha5:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Ehn2:29
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Helm – de la Rose2:04
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin16:03
xG 0.45–0.66 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Green17:59
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Daley – DeKeyser2:58
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser14:36
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVarone – Raffl – Bailey6:21
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick11:21
xG 0.59–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom13:03
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:04
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:27
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 22–6goals 2–1
- Gudas – Hagg15:53
xG 0.57–0.80 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov16:55
xG 0.50–0.89 (36%)attempts 8–24goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).